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American League
BEAT |
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DECEMBER 2011 |
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A funny thing happened to the KC Royals on their way to an American league pennant - they forgot how to win! KC went through a 3-12 stretch to open the 3rd month, including a 5 game sweep at the hands of the California Angels, a painful loss considering that the sweep gave California a commanding lead for 1st place, not to mention all the tie-breakers, should KC make a last-ditch effort to make up some ground. Speaking of those Angels, what a month they enjoyed! A dominant 16-4 month took California from 3 games behind to a commanding 6 game lead through 60 games. It was supposed to be a letdown month for the Angels, as they lost one of their offensive leaders for the season (Justin Morneau), but an astute trade at the 40 game mark to pick up Paul Konerko seemed to spark the team. What a difference a month makes, as this time after game 40, California was looking like a distant competitor to the surging Royals, but now looks to be pretty much even with KC, as the two powerhouses seem to be on a collision course to meet for all the marbles in the AL Finals. But there have been many other shocking stories that developed over the 3rd month. Toronto established itself as more of a contender than a pretender; Boston continued to tread water at .500 despite trying to overcome the worse starting pitching in the league; Seattle decided to trade away some of its future to try and take advantage of its league-leading bullpen in hopes of winning "now", and are comfortably in the playoff picture after 60 games; And, perhaps the most shocking of all, the seeming demise of the proud Oakland A's, which is even more shocking considering they possess one of the top offenses in the league. Meanwhile, here is a look at projected Award winners. Here's our take on which players are in contention for the end of the season hardware: MVP: 1. Alex Rodriguez, Cal (.324, .408, 20-52, 37 runs) 2. Ryan Zimmerman, Oak (.354, .412, 14-50, 48 runs) 3. Jose Bautista, KC (.256, .391, 18-47, 46 runs)
Cy Young:
1. Matt Latos, Tor (10-2, 2.10, 98 K's) 2. Felix Hernandez, NYY (7-1, 2.03, 74 K's) 3. Hiroki Kuroda, KC (9-2, 2.19, 73 K's)
Rookie: 1. Matt Latos, Tor (10-2, 2.10, 98 K's) 2. Brett Gardiner, Sea (.314, .422, 5-21, 54 runs, 20 SB) 3. Buster Posey, Tor (.356, .399, 9-31, 20 runs)
Manager: 1. March A., Toronto 2. Mike T., California 3. Menas G., Seattle
KANSAS CITY 34-26 The Royals slump was no accident. Everyone knew the bullpen was this team's achilles heel, so it was just a matter of time before this rag tag group of relievers ran out of luck and began to blow some of those late inning leads. And blow they did. KC has now lost 8 games in which it led after 6 innings, which is double as many losses as the next worst team. Take away just those 4 extra losses and bring them down to just "average" in terms of holding a lead, and suddenly KC is just 2 games off the pace. KC is hoping that the reduced importance of a bullpen come playoff time will be the cure that ails them. Another factor in KC's demise during the 3rd month was a hitting slump that was due to hit, considering that this team was on a pace to shatter just about every offensive record ever posted in the USBL. KC had hit 82 home runs after 40 games, an average of 41 per month, but hit just 23 in the 3rd month, a 50% decline in power production. One notable individual performance to mention is that of sophmore center fielder Dexter Fowler. He is 1 home run shy of joining a very elite group of hitters who achieve double digits in doubles, triples, and home runs. PROJECTION:
Given how red hot this team was through the first 35 games of the season, it is not inconceivable that they can get hot again, and make a run at catching the Angels. However, it would have to be some run, and it would have to be coupled with an almost complete breakdown by California in order to overcome a 6 game deficit with just 17 games to play, and with California holding the tie-breaker, which means the deficit is really 7 games with 17 to play. How difficult would it be for KC? Well, assuming they go 14-3, a tall order, California would have to go just 7-10 in order for KC to overtake them for 1st place. Not very likely. KC therefore will prepare to host the upstart Blue Jays in the AL semis, and if they pass that test, travel to California for the inevitable showdown.
CALIFORNIA ANGELS 40-20 For a team with average pitching, no ace in its rotation, and an offensive attack that centers around 5 guys, this team had all the makings of a 3rd place team. But give credit to manager Mike T., as he has more than squeezed out every last inch of baseball from these guys. But the key during the hot streak was rookie Jamie Garcia, who was a surprise acquisition when he fell to the late second round in the 2011 Rookie Draft. California went 5-0 in Garcia's 5 starts during the 3rd month. Another hot player was Alex Rodriguez, who rised from nowhere to become an MVP candidate with his 20 home runs and 52 RBI. And of course veteran Paul Konerko, who hit 5 home runs and drove in 18 during his 20 games with the Angels replacing injured Justin Morneau. PROJECTION The Angels are a bit like Tim Tebow, they don't get enough respect for what they have accomplished, and everyone keeps waiting for disaster to hit. But this team continues to confound the experts, despite an average starting rotation, and an even more questionable bullpen. Sometimes a team just has the chemistry, and it certainly looks like the Angels can ride that wave all the way to the World Series.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS 33-27
Things were not all roses for the Blue Jays in the 3rd month. Rookie sensation Buster Posey's batting average fell from .420 to .356, while Hunter Pence fell from .374 down to .321. In fact, the entire Jays offense took a giant step backwards. Yet, Toronto still managed to finish the 3rd month with an 11-9 record. How did they do that?
The simple answer is pitching. Rookie Matt Latos has been the true ace that every team searches for. The Jays are 11-2 in Latos' 13 starts, which means the rest of the team is just 22-25. But if he is able to replicate his regular season performance come playoff time, then all Toronto needs is a .500 performance from the rest of the staff. Brett Anderson was a perfect companion to Latos, until he went down with an injury.
The Jays continue to be weak against left-handed pitching, as they sit at 7-10 versus southpaw starters, but that is not much of a concern, since their likely playoff oppoents - KC and California, each have just 1 southpaw in their rotation.
PROJECTION: The Jays are not great at any one area, but are good at just about every category across the board. That means that they will be very tough to dispatch in a 7 game series, especially if Latos continues his dominant ways. Realistically this team is a year away from true contender status, but in the weak American League, anything is possible.
BOSTON RED SOX 30-30 How this team continues to play .500 baseball is a mystery, given their horrendous starting pitching, and their middle of the pack offense. Yet, here they are. The starter's ERA is 6.43, which would be near 7.00 if you exclude Johnny Cueto and his 4.22 mark. But the bullpen has been saving their bacon, as they lead the American league with 12 bullpen wins. Boston has also benefited from their assault on left-handed pitching this season, as they stand 12-7 versus lefties, but just 18-23 versus righties. The offense actually got better in the 3rd month, despite the season-ending injury to sparkplug Dustin Pedroia. One of the reasons was the play of his replacement, Ryan Theriot, who hit .372 in the month, with 9 RBI in the 20 games. But several of the Boston offensive stars stepped it up in the 3rd month, including Adrian Gonzalez (.277, 11-44), and David Ortiz (.270, 12-32). But the team MVP has been Nick Swisher (.272, 14-44) who has been steady all season long. PROJECTION
It is very difficult to imagine a playoff scenario where Boston wins post-season series, but their manager is no stranger to Cinderella post-season runs. They do possess the front-line arms in the rotation to make a deep playoff run in Max Scherzer and Johnny Cueto, but Scherzer has been nothing short of a disaster this year, as he sits at 4-7 and a 7.15 ERA. Could he turn it around come playoff time?
The bullpen would most certainly be front and center in any playoff success, which means that Cam will have to continue pulling out the right name, at the right time, before the game gets away from them.
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OAKLAND A'S 26-34 The A's rank 3rd in runs scored in the league, just 9 runs behind California for #2 ranking, but they also rank 3rd from the bottom in runs allowed. Oakland decided to gamble on left-handed pitching this season, possibly identifying a league-wide weakness for southpaws, but the plan did not play out quite as Oakland had hoped, as they rank a distant 5th in team ERA. But looking closer, only 3 of the 8 AL teams own plus .500 records versus left-handed starters, so perhaps the A's management was not far off, yet the results just haven't been there for the A's, despite the great offensive support.
But perhaps nothing has hurt Oakland as much as their 3-14 record in 1-run games. Considering the league average in this category is 9-7, those are 6 wins that eluded Oakland. Hand the A's those 6 lost wins, and suddenly they are a 34-26 team, and right there with KC and Toronto! So could Oakland's disappointing season be chalked up to bad luck?
Should Oakland fail to qualify for post-season action, they will have wasted a dominant individual performance from 3rd baseman Ryan Zimmerman (.354, .412, 14-50).
PROJECTION: With 5th place Seattle facing the daunting challenge of having to go through California and Kansas City in the 4th month, while Oakland faces the Yankees and the White Sox, both non-playoff teams, it is not inconceivable that Oakland can bounce right back into the playoff race. And should they somehow sneak in, they will be feared as much as any 5th place team has ever been feared in post season history. NEW YORK YANKEES 26-34 What a disappointing season its been for the Yankees! They began the year figuring they were a top 4 team, but they found ways to lose almost immediately. By Game 40, they traded away one of their best bats in Paul Konerko, and then dealt a bunch of important role players to Seattle in a deal which helps New York for 2012. yet the irony is they remain in the hunt for a playoff spot. The Yankees are barely above just the White Sox for the fewest runs scored in the league, yet, if their once-promising starting pitching was performing as it should have been, New York could still be right in the middle of the pack. Dan Haren (5-5, 5.20), Ian Kennedy (2-5, 5.73), and Erwin Santana (3-6, 6.82) have really let the team down. On the bright side, Felix Hernandez is enjoying perhaps his best season yet, as he stands at 7-1, 2.03. Offensively, with Prince Fielder as the sole offensive power threat, its no wonder he leads the league with 57 walks drawn. PROJECTION It is not inconceivable that this team can also catch Seattle for the last playoff spot. And, should they accomplish that, then like Oakland, this team will be feared also, as they would be throwing the best starting rotation amongst any of the playoff teams, giving them the potential to rack up a bunch of 2-1 and 3-2 wins. Very dangerous team should they sneak in.
SEATTLE MARINERS 29-31 The Mariners were on their way to searching for a nice home to send closer Billy Wagner, when suddenly they took a surprising 4 out of 5 versus the Yankees, made a blockbuster trade (as far as role players go), and suddenly they are in playoff position.
Seattle does not have many weapons to play with, but the few they do have are giving the M's everything they have and more. For example, with a real lack of on-base guys, rookie Brett Gardner is their only hope to set the table. And he has done better than anyone could have dreamed, as he leads the league in runs scored with 54, and stolen bases with 20.
Another example is rookie power hitter Mike Stanton. Called up just before the halfway mark of the season, and with no real power hitters to speak of (especially after the season-ending injury to Chipper Jones), Stanton has been lights-out, as he is hitting .293, with 9 HR and 27 RBI in just 33 games!
Factor in several clutch hits during the course of the season so far, and its easy to see how this team has found ways to snatch victory from defeat. Of course none of this would be possible if not for their bullpen, which ranks #1 in ERA with a tiny 2.49 mark. They have been able to keep the games close, allowing the offense to come back and steal some of those games.
PROJECTION: The script is simple for Seattle. Find a way to take at least 4 out of the 10 games versus California and Kansas City in month #4, and they will be virtually home-free as they head into the Last 7. Anything more than 4 out of 10 will be a bonus. But should Seattle stumble against the Big 2, then they will almost certainly find themselves in a dogfight for that last playoff spot, and it will likely go right down to game 77. Seattle is trying to save face with regards to that deal with the Yankees, as most of Seattle's benefits of that deal were strictly for this season, so falling short of their playoff goal would most certainly leave a sour taste in their mouths.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX 22-38 The overall team stats are not that bad on the surface. The team is hitting .257, which is not bad, yet they rank dead last in runs scored. It seems the pitching has really let the club down, as some of the Sox starters possess some absolutely dreadful stats. Jair Jurjens (1-10, 7.63) is the worse of the group. On the plus side, Ted Lilly (8-4, 4.37) has been worth every penny. The team did show improvement in the 3rd month, going 8-12.
PROJECTION: The Sox are in a position to play spoiler, as they face Oakland in month #4, knowing that the A's need at least 4 of 5 in order to have a shot at the playoffs. They also face Boston, a team that at 30-30, is no lock for a post-season spot, as an extended slump over these final 17 games could actually see them finish on the outside looking in. These 2 series will be huge in terms of experience for the Sox and their fledging manager.
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